Stability and change in party issue positions: The 2009 and 2014 European elections

Democratic elections must necessarily be about change1 Events change between elections, and thus newgovernment responses are required. Voters’ preferences may change in reaction to events and their changing life circumstances. And political parties also may reevaluate their positions in the light of new circumstances or the positions of competing parties. This potential for change contributes tomaking democratic governments accountable and representative of public preferences. If parties and voters did not change their positions between elections in reaction to events and government performance, there would be little reason for more than one election. The 2009, 2014 European Parliament elections should provide a clear example of the dynamics of electoral change (Schmitt and Toygür forthcoming). The 2008 financial crisis had a diverse effect across Europe; by late 2009 economic growth in some nations was beginning again. But then the problems of national debt and the Eurozone crisis plunged several nations into recessions, and somedPortugal, Ireland, Greece and Spaindon the verge of economic collapse. In October of 2009 Greece’s finance minister first revealed the large shortfall in the government’s budget; the first bailout of the Greek government occurred in May 2010. The Irish bailout was in November of 2010, followed by the Portuguese bailout in May 2011 and a second Greek bailout in July. Spanish banks received a bailout in June 2012, and the Cyprus bailout occurred in April 2013. Unemployment grew between 2009 and 2014 in both the Eurozone and the full EUmembership; and growth rates stagnated across most of Europe.2 What began as a sharp downturn because of the banking crisis became long-term stagnation with many new developments between 2009 and 2014. These financial difficulties also produced a crisis for the institutions of the Europe Union that struggled to respond to these developments. The initial banking crisis raised issues of balancing EU standards and national sovereignty. EU member states began to diverge in how to address these problems and restructure the